So it seems that finally, after so much secrecy, Fred Thompson is going to announce his candidacy and boost Ron Paul's chances of winning the Republican nomination and more easily the national election.
As of right now there are three front runners; Guliani, McCain, and Romney. Each spouting off a very similar big government neo-con message that differs only slightly. If each of these candidates stays out front until the election they will split the big-government neo-con electorate. If this happens, Ron Paul will need only 25% of the Republican primary vote (a few votes will most likely be split among the other 6 neo-cons as well). He'll have the full support of the small government conservatives since there will be no competition for that slot. In a state like Iowa where in 2000 there were 86,000 Republican primary voters he would only need 21,500 votes to win.
But, an added bonus has befallen Ron Paul. Fred Thompson is joining the race adding yet another big-government neo-con to the race. That makes it so Ron Paul only needs 20% of the vote to win the primary and go on to be president. That's a mere 17,200 votes Ron Paul would need in Iowa.
It could turn out that he needs a mere 2 million Republican votes to win every state in the primary (just over a million to take 51%).
So, thank you Fred Thompson for supporting Ron Paul in his effort to become the next president of the United States, we look forward to you grabbing up your share of that juicy neo-con/big government support.
4 comments:
An interesting way of crunching the numbers for a Ron Paul win. Very nice.
This only works assuming Thompson doesn't also pull from Paul supporters. If he pulls some from every candidate, Paul's chances will not change much across the board. Given the support in the Internet community, and how they're getting the message out there, Paul definitely has a shot.
Thompson, however, does as well. If you look at the results of this, by definition, completely meaningless straw poll, at the time that I'm typing this, Paul is winning by a huge margin, followed by Thompson. As you know elwar, I'd be happy with either one of them. But I REALLY don't want any of the others.
Oh, and while WAY misguided and completely insane, that little moustache (sp?) dude DID have style. ;)
I am afraid that he MIGHT pull some Ron Paul supporters away, because Thompson likes to talk about the Constitution and federalism.
But his voting record is big spending, neoconservative.
http://www.freemarketnews.com/WorldNews.asp?nid=42649
I personally would NOT be "happy with either one of them." Ron Paul is night-and-day better than Fred Thompson.
Thompson only talks the talk, Paul walks the walk.
Aren't we all tired of politicians spouting sweet nothings in our ears only to leave us in the morning when the election is won?
There is Ron Paul on one side, and Dennis Kucinich/Mike Gravel on another. These 3 candidates are honest, principled, and do what they say. Love or hate their policies, you know what you are getting.
I am conservative, but unless Paul is nominated, I will vote for a democrat like Hillary/Obama before the republicans foist another neo-con on me. In other words, I may as well order dog food if I expect to get dog food.
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